Jul 4, 2010

Week in Volatility

VIX futures are up this week, and in an interesting pattern - distant months rose more that the near months. This is an unusual pattern since most of the time the volatility and sensitivity to spot index declines as one goes out further in expiration.

I have not researched the historical patterns of term structure, but I recall seeing a similar pattern in the spring - summer of 2008. After a spike in May, front months declined, but back-month futures stayed relatively expensive, or rose. I wonder if this is a sign of upcoming vol spike.

Elsewhere on the web SurlyTrader notes a bump in the term structure of VIX futures as opportunity for a calendar spread between October and December. See follow-up comments to the post.

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