Aug 29, 2010

Week in Volatility

It was a bumpy ride for the VIX (and my portfolio) this week. The index rose above 28 on Tue and Wed, and fell below 25 on Fri. The week to week change in the equity and volatility indexes was completely overshadowed by intraweek action. VIX and VSTOXX futures declined in the near term, however the long-term levels were unchanged. With volatility rising and falling so much in one week, it seems to be a good time to rethink the forecasts. My model still shows Sep expiration forecast of 25.36 (higher than my previous forecast) with volatility of 3.85 (lower than my previous forecast).

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