Nov 14, 2010

Week in Volatility

S&P and Eurostoxx fell about 2% this week, however Friday's action really pushed VIX futures higher. VSTOXX futures ended the week only slightly higher - mostly because of the time difference having closed on Friday while VIX continued to rise, and I fully expect VSTOXX futures to open lower on Monday (by about a point) to make up the difference.

Overall this week's action surprised me. I was positioning my portfolio to profit from further fall in the VIX, where my max profit zone is from about 18 to 20 in the front month, however given Friday action (VIX high at > 21) with just 2 full trading days to go before expiration seems like a very uncertain proposition.

While I thought that the market decided that it is the time for low volatility regime, we're still probably in the mid vol levels - and can easily see VIX push higher given a catalyst.

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