Dec 17, 2010

VIX Falls

As I'm writing this VIX is trading at ~15.60, very close to it annual low of 15.23 back in April. This level is obviously significantly below what I expect a month ago, but also lower than investor expectations. The front month futures expiring on Wed, Dec 22 that have only 2 full trading days until expiration are still relatively juicy at 17.30! Of course the big question on everyone's mind is what is next for the market and for the VIX. While the future is uncertain, I think that VIX has entered a low-volatility regime (see my post here). I think economic uncertainty will not allow long-term VIX futures to fall much lower (back months are about 25) , which means that term structure premium is likely to remain high. If I'm correct in my hypothesis, we can see a steady decline in VXX due to increased rolling costs. Good luck traders, hope everyone has a good expiration!

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