Nov 19, 2011

Expiration Analysis

Volatility indexes traded in a broad range with politically-driven swings. VIX rose 0.21, and VSTOXX fell 1.81. I managed to be wrong on both directions for the index futures - you can see my complete forecasting track record on Forecasts Tracker page. There is a lot of uncertainly going forward because political factors are driving the market and these things are not something I can forecast with a statistical model. Still - for the next expiration I predict
VIX to close at 32.06 vs 32.35 in the futures, 
VSTOXX to close at 38.31 vs 37.95 in the futures. 
Futures prices are Friday settlement.

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