Apr 30, 2013

VHSI May Forecast

Contracts tied to volatility of Hong-Kong benchmark HSI index expired today, settling at 15.28, lower than the futures level a month ago, and closer to my forecast of 14.82. For the next expiration I forecast VHSI index to settle at 15.67 vs futures level of 17.85. It seems that the spike in VIX we experienced about two weeks ago in the was just that - a temporary specific (VHSI did not experience a parallel move) spike, and not a return to a higher volatility levels. As usual all forecasts are recorded on Forecasts Tracker spreadsheet.

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