Weekly market update and results summary

In November of last year I published a post demonstrating that using VIX + normal distribution, or +/- 1 std 68% rule is far far different from real distribution of short-term SPX returns. To validate this, and demonstrate concrete results to the readers I started publishing weekly market forecasts where I predict 50% confidence intervals for the next trading week. If my methodology was well calibrated we would see SPX finish the week inside the range 50% of the time, and 50% outside of the range - this what 50% confidence range means. 

Last week I wrote that after 2 months ( 8 forecasts ) we can start looking at the data and drawing conclusions. The results are in: 4 out of 8, or 50%, which is obviously the best result I could hope for. 

In the following weeks I plan on starting publishing 50% confidence ranges for cryptocurrencies as well; I think some readers will find this helpful for their trading. If you are looking to trade crypto options there is no better exchange than Deribit about which I wrote many times. The exchange has 90% market share of all crypto options volume, and is the most advanced in terms of technology and API integration.