XXV - IVO trade

I've written before about XXV and its price connection to VXX. The formula for historical relationship between two ETFs is

XXV ≈ $20 * (1 - (VXX-108.03)/108.03 ) = $40 - VXX * (20/108.03)

That relationship has changed slightly, probably because of accrued fees / transaction costs. As I pointed out, it VXX falls to zero that provides a maximum for theoretical value of the ETF of $40. Having risen 70% since its inception (using base value of $20) in 7 months XXV does not provide much of an upside to investors, and will probably spend the rest of its existence going slowly to $40. Apparently in response to this iPath launched IVO - an identical fund, but with a more recent start date. Now that IVO has been trading for a few weeks, I provide a similar formula for IVO:

IVO ≈ $20 * (1 - (VXX-32.99)/32.99 ) = $40 - VXX * (20/32.99)

The maximum value is still $40, but return upside is greater.

It is clear that arbitrage is possible among all three ETFs. For example the following relationship holds between IVO and XXV

IVO ≈ $40 - (40-XXV)*108.03/32.99

Good luck, traders!