Mar 16, 2011

VIX forecast? There is no forecast!

In the last few days volatility blew through my expectations to levels that we have not seen in months. VIX expired at 25.14, up 8.65 since last expiration, and VSTOXX finished at 35.23 up from 19.19 last month. This is significantly higher than the forecasts I made. With this recent volatility I'm sure everyone is trying their best to forecast where the VIX will go next. However I think is it prudent to remember that there are limitations to our forecasting ability - the situation in Japan that currently holds market's attention, or its ultimate influence on economy and the market is highly uncertain. I think this is a fair warning - now my "forecasts" for next expiration are: VIX at 23.36 vs 24.90 in the futures, VSTOXX at 28.30 vs 26.80 in the futures. Good luck traders, and hedge your deltas!

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