Jul 16, 2011

Week in Volatility

If feels after relatively bullish start market got spooked at the end of the week, VIX futures, VSTOXX futures were up across the board. Implied volatility for VIX options also rose, which made for a stressful day for me on Friday. Front month options are set to expire on Wednesday morning, after which I will update everyone on the volatility forecasting contest we started a month ago. For now, I think that VIX at 20 is a more "fair" value for the index rather than 15, but flow seem to be shorting vol no matter how low VIX is.

After a strong start the volume on RTSVX started to drop. I hope this is a temporary disruption, and that futures trading continues to grow. I ran my model few days ago on the futures, and found that they were fairly valued, unfortunately I do not have trading access to Russian markets.

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