Dec 26, 2010

Week in Volatility

After a sharp decline last week, VIX traded in a 15.50-16.50 range, surprisingly rising on Thursday , which was the last trading day of the week. Given that many exchanges around the world will be closed tomorrow, and light trading around the New Year I expect the spot volatility indexes to remain low, while the term structure of futures to be high. This all should put some pressure on VXX, however I don't have a forecast. My forecast for the VIX to be in little higher in 16 - 17 range.

For January expiration my forecast is for 17.66 +/- 3.85 vs market forecast (based on futures and options implied volatility) of 19.80 +/- 4.53.

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