### Volatility and Expected Range ( High - Low ), Are They The Same?

This is not a post to correct some abstract mathematical technicality, or a semantic point. Rather I hope to shed some light on widespread mis-estimation of important risk metric that I often see on the internet. For example this double-decker of ignorance popped up on my twitter feed today.

VIX as you know is an annualized measure and in order to calculate an expected daily move - that is from one trading day to another, one should use trading day count convention, and sqrt(1/252) - not 365 - as a factor.

sqrt(2/pi) ~ 0.8 is the multiplier to get the average absolute daily return, and here the author is correct.

However the range of a random walk is double that amount, 2 * sqrt(2/pi) ~ 1.6 , and in our case over 3%

Lower than 5% range we saw in S&P today, but the difference is far less dramatic than the tweet suggests.

Traders, pay attention to numbers and formulas you use in your trading. Mistakes can costs you money!

### Simple Trick to Convert Volatility

As I am sure all of you know Russia has began a full scale war against my home country Ukraine. Please make no mistake - Putin's goal in not to stop the expansion of NATO, not to install puppet government, and certainly not to bring peace. The goal is genocide of Ukrainian people.  When Ukraine was under Russian communist occupation, Russians started off with killing of political leaders, repression of Ukrainian language and traditions - including prohibiting people from celebrating Christmas, and then wide-scale murder of millions of Ukrainian civilians. We already starting to see this today:  Russians are targeting civilian hospitals, kindergartens, and bomb shelters. If you are reading this make a phone call to your government representatives and ask to sanction Russian federation in absolutely any way possible, and provide military aid to Ukraine. Please just do this little thing to give us a chance to protect ourselves.       My boss came to me today with "how

### Re: Ukraine

As I am sure all of you know Russia has began a full scale war against my home country Ukraine. Please make no mistake - Putin's goal in not to stop the expansion of NATO, not to install puppet government, and certainly not to bring peace. The goal is genocide of Ukrainian people.  When Ukraine was under Russian communist occupation, Russians started off with killing of political leaders, repression of Ukrainian language and traditions - including prohibiting people from celebrating Christmas, and then wide-scale murder of millions of Ukrainian civilians. We already starting to see this today: Russians say they are conducting surgical strikes, but there is already numerous witness accounts and video evidence of Russians targeting civilian hospitals, kindergartens, and bomb shelters. Please: there is very little time - if you are reading this make a phone call to your government representatives and ask to sanction Russian federation in absolutely any way possible, and provide milit

### Volatility and Expected Range

Despite what you read on many blogs, volatility and expected range are not the same, not even close. This fallacy is common among internet pundits who do not know any better, but to traders like me who have real money on the line such mistakes can be dangerous. This is not a post to correct some abstract mathematical technicality, or merely a semantic point. Rather I hope to shed some light on widespread mis-estimation of important risk metric. For example, certain Mark Bail provides us with the following gem of ignorance here "So, why is the VIX important? For one, it provides you with a reasonable projection of the expected range within which the S&P 500 is likely to trade within the next month. To use the current environment as an example, the S&P 500 closed on June 19 at 1240.14. The June 19 closing VIX reading of 17.83 suggests that options traders and investors anticipate that between now and July 19, the S&P 500 is likely to trade roughly within 1.49% range