### Volatility and Price of a Straddle, Are They The Same?

Yesterday I found another piece of ignorance on Medium: Stop Watching The VIX, Just Make Your Own

tl;dr : Just use ATM straddles 🤦

This is of course not correct. As I have written before on this blog that (skipping mathematical rigor) the value of ATM straddle is

or about 80% of the expected volatility. So if SPY = $400 and VIX = 20, the expected volatility is$400 * 20/100 = $80, then 1 year ATM straddle would be about 80% of$80 ~ $64 Alternatively, if you see a straddle, you can approximate expected volatility dividing by 80%. For example SPY ATM straddle for 2022/11/18 expiration is about$25 . The expected volatility for November expiration is $25/0.8 ~$31.25

Even animals are not spared from Russian violence. This dog was found with "V" burned on his snout

Another dog had "Z" cut out on its snout ( video )

russian soldiers burned horses alive

shot cattle for fun

deliberately killed cattle and stole agricultural machinery in order to starve us.

Most of the readers of this blog are from US, Canada, and Europe with developed financial markets. Your voice is making a difference! Your support will drive away russian aggressor and bring peace. I am grateful to everyone who made phone calls, donated money, or joined a demonstration. Please keep calling your political representatives and urge them to provide more aid to Ukraine!

### Simple Trick to Convert Volatility

As I am sure all of you know Russia has began a full scale war against my home country Ukraine. Please make no mistake - Putin's goal in not to stop the expansion of NATO, not to install puppet government, and certainly not to bring peace. The goal is genocide of Ukrainian people.  When Ukraine was under Russian communist occupation, Russians started off with killing of political leaders, repression of Ukrainian language and traditions - including prohibiting people from celebrating Christmas, and then wide-scale murder of millions of Ukrainian civilians. We already starting to see this today:  Russians are targeting civilian hospitals, kindergartens, and bomb shelters. If you are reading this make a phone call to your government representatives and ask to sanction Russian federation in absolutely any way possible, and provide military aid to Ukraine. Please just do this little thing to give us a chance to protect ourselves.       My boss came to me today with "how

### Re: Ukraine

As I am sure all of you know Russia has began a full scale war against my home country Ukraine. Please make no mistake - Putin's goal in not to stop the expansion of NATO, not to install puppet government, and certainly not to bring peace. The goal is genocide of Ukrainian people.  When Ukraine was under Russian communist occupation, Russians started off with killing of political leaders, repression of Ukrainian language and traditions - including prohibiting people from celebrating Christmas, and then wide-scale murder of millions of Ukrainian civilians. We already starting to see this today: Russians say they are conducting surgical strikes, but there is already numerous witness accounts and video evidence of Russians targeting civilian hospitals, kindergartens, and bomb shelters. Please: there is very little time - if you are reading this make a phone call to your government representatives and ask to sanction Russian federation in absolutely any way possible, and provide milit

### Volatility and Expected Range

Despite what you read on many blogs, volatility and expected range are not the same, not even close. This fallacy is common among internet pundits who do not know any better, but to traders like me who have real money on the line such mistakes can be dangerous. This is not a post to correct some abstract mathematical technicality, or merely a semantic point. Rather I hope to shed some light on widespread mis-estimation of important risk metric. For example, certain Mark Bail provides us with the following gem of ignorance here "So, why is the VIX important? For one, it provides you with a reasonable projection of the expected range within which the S&P 500 is likely to trade within the next month. To use the current environment as an example, the S&P 500 closed on June 19 at 1240.14. The June 19 closing VIX reading of 17.83 suggests that options traders and investors anticipate that between now and July 19, the S&P 500 is likely to trade roughly within 1.49% range